HOUSTON, Texas - Fountain Forward, a Houston-based automotive marketing agency, has released its latest Automotive Market Minute episode, offering dealers and market watchers an in-depth look at the trends shaping the U.S. automotive industry as the spring market approaches.
The February episode features founder Stephen Jurgella alongside market analysts Phil Trzebiatowski and James Sivco. Fresh off the 2026 NADA Show, the team unpacks a "weird" start to the year characterized by the largest monthly drop in new sales history, a resilient used market, and the critical "Day 54" milestone for tax season.
The "State of the Union" (Sales & Inventory)
- Sales Performance: The team reports a sharp contrast in performance: while January saw the "largest individual month drop in the history of the Automotive Market Minute" for new sales, the used market remains "very resilient".
- The "Uneven" Reality: January volume came in at 1.11 million units, a 0.6% increase year-over-year. However, this growth is tempered by severe weather disruptions ("Winter Storm Fern") that closed many dealerships and dampened results.
- Inventory Metrics: Used market day supply continues to hover around a healthy 45 days.
Incentives, Rates & Financial Trends
- Negative Equity Crisis: The average consumer is now underwater by a record $7,214. Jurgella notes that while fewer people may be underwater compared to 2019, the depth of that negative equity has exploded.
- Tax Season Relief: Help is on the way with a projected $900 increase per tax return, setting a potential multi-decade record for refund size.
- The "Day 54" Target: The analysts pinpoint "Day 54" of the year as the critical tipping point when the Treasury typically accelerates refund processing, signaling the true start of the spring buying wave.
Consumer Sentiment & Macro Indicators
- Inflation Outlook: The episode highlights "Truflation", a real-time inflation indicator - which is currently "falling off a cliff" faster than traditional CPI or Fed data, suggesting a 2026 environment of good growth with low inflation.
- Consumer Sentiment: Sentiment is currently "bouncing off a decade-long level of resistance," indicating a potential rebound toward a more positive consumer mindset.
- GDP Growth: Wall Street economists are marking up real GDP growth for early 2026, driven by falling inflation and a shrinking trade deficit.
Key Metrics Snapshot
- New-Vehicle Sales: Up 0.6% vs. Jan 2025 (aided by one extra selling day).
- Used-Retail Sales: Up year-over-year with continued resilience.
- Negative Equity: Average of $7,214 per vehicle.
- Tax Refund Forecast: Average refund expected to rise by ~$900.
Action Steps for Dealers Fountain Forward's experts conclude the episode with practical recommendations:
- The "Bridge" Strategy: Dealers must train their teams to view tax refunds not as a total solution, but as a "bridge." With the average refund around $4,100 and negative equity at over $7,200, the check only covers half the hole.
- Proactive Management: Don't just wait for the checks to arrive. Teams need to be "better at appraisals, better inventory selection, and better at restructuring" to close the remaining $3,000 gap.
- Future Prep: Focus all efforts on being ready for the "Day 54" surge in refund availability.
What to do next?
- Watch the Episode: The Automotive Market Minute is a complimentary monthly video series helping dealerships decode market data. The latest episode is available on YouTube and the Fountain Forward website.
- Subscribe: Viewers are encouraged to subscribe for more insights to support the creation of future content.
About Fountain Forward Marketing Agency:
Based in Houston, Texas, Fountain Forward is a team of automotive marketing experts dedicated to helping dealerships succeed. The agency combines data-driven analytics with innovative marketing strategies to boost lead volume, sales, and appointment show rates.
Email: admin@fountainforward.com
Media Contact
Name
Fountain Forward Marketing Agency
Contact name
Stephen Jurgella
Contact phone
(855) 975-5557
Contact address
303 Tabor St.
City
Houston
State
TX
Zip
77009
Country
United States
Url
https://fountainforward.com/
COMTEX_474789040/2888/2026-03-06T18:02:48